摘要
常用的油气长输管道能耗预测方法可以分为统计分析法和工艺计算法两类。目前国内对输油管道能耗预测进行的研究较多,而对输气管道则相对较少。在详细地介绍了采用工艺计算法计算输气管道压降、压缩机机组能耗、驱动机能耗具体方法的基础上,结合国内某条天然气管道输送系统实例,计算了驱动机能耗、压缩机组能耗、各计算管段的压降,并与该管道年能耗、实际压降进行对比。结果表明,在该条输气管道的能耗预测中,由于驱动机的效率较低,因而最大误差出现在对驱动机的能耗预测上;而压缩机的效率较高,运行相对平稳,因而压缩机组的实际能耗与预测能耗偏差很小。最后指出,工艺计算法的计算量大,且由于某些参数是通过回归分析或利用软件等手段获得,导致预测能耗与实际能耗偏差有时较大。而目前常用的很多统计分析方法受统计样本数量和准确度的影响较大,不能适用于各种工况,因此两种计算法各有其优、缺点。
The common prediction methods of energy consumption for oil and gas pipelines are the statistical analysis method and the process calculation method. The domestic researches stress on energy consumption of oil pipeline rather than gas pipeline. This paper uses the process calculation method to calculate energy consumptions of driving machine and compressor set, pressure drop in each calculational pipeline section for a domestic practical pipeline, and compares them with the annual energy consumption and real pressure drop. The results show that the maximum error in energy consumption prediction of the pipeline appears in that of the driving machine due to its low efficiency; the small energy consumption prediction error appears in the compressor set due to its high efficiency and steady running. It is pointed out that the process calculation method has larger amount of calculation work and sometimes bigger energy consumption error because some parameters are acquired from regression analysis or software application; On the other hand, many statistical analysis methods are unsuitable for various working conditions, because they are affected by statistical sample quantity and accuracy. So for the statistical analysis method and the process calculation method, each has its own advantage and disadvantage.
出处
《石油工程建设》
2017年第3期6-9,共4页
Petroleum Engineering Construction
关键词
天然气管道
能耗预测
工艺计算法
统计分析法
natural gas pipeline
energy consumption prediction
process calculation method
statistical analysis method
