摘要
为量化评价雾天环境中高速公路实时交通安全状态,以雾天高速公路交通观测数据为基础,在VISSIM仿真软件中模拟不同雾天环境下高速公路交通流运行状态,并分析雾天能见度、交通流参数与实时交通安全状态之间的关系;将交通冲突数作为高速公路实时交通安全状态的表征指标,运用随机森林算法确定影响实时交通安全状态的主要因素,并利用回归分析方法建立雾天环境中高速公路实时交通冲突数计算模型;选取美国I-43高速公路交通和气象数据,对雾天实时交通安全状态评价方法进行测试和验证。结果表明,模型计算的交通冲突数与交通事故的发生状态一致,能准确反映雾天交通事故发生前后的交通安全状态。
To evaluate the real-time safety status of a freeway in fog, the VISSIM software was used to simulate freeway traffic flows in various foggy environments, based on the actual traffic data, and the relationships between visibility, traffic flow parameters and real-time traffic safety were analyzed. The number of traffic conflicts was selected as indicator of freeway real-time safety status, and the main factors influencing real-time traffic safety status were identified using the random forest method, then a calculation model was built for real-time traffic conflicts by regression analysis. The model was tested and verified by using the traffic and meteorology data for 1-43 freeway in USA. The results show that the traffic conflicts calculated by the model are consistent with the occurrence of traffic accidents, which can accurately reflect traffic safety status before and after the accidents under a foggy weather condition.
作者
张存保
彭汉辉
张珊
吕昌平
ZHANG Cunbao PENG Hanhui ZHANG Shan LYU Changping(Intelligent Transport System Research Center, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan HuDei 430063, China Wuhan Institute of Transportation Technology Corporation, Wuhan Hubei 430073, China)
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第4期110-115,共6页
China Safety Science Journal
基金
国家自然科学基金资助(51578432)
武汉市青年科技晨光计划资助项目(2016070204010124)
云南省交通运输厅科技计划资助项目(2016A05)
