摘要
综合评价定性指标测度以评价者偏好为重要依据。围绕群体综合评价定性指标测度中,个体评价者偏好测度不充分与实践指导性不足以及群体偏好集成的个体权重难以确定等问题,提出一种基于证据理论的定性指标测度优化方法。首先,构建基于证据理论的偏好信息分布测度思路,利用以有效子集为基础的半可加离散分布,统一测度评价者各类型偏好选择及其信度。其次,利用迭代方法从重要性和可靠性两个方面,求解基于主客观信息的个体权重,并提出一种相适应的群体分布偏好集成方法。上述方法通过提高个体偏好信息测度与集成的充分性及实践指导性,实现优化综合评价定性指标测度的目标。最后,通过实例验证方法的有效性。
In the face of qualitative indicator measurement in comprehensive evaluation, a method of xpert group evaluation based on Evidence Theory is proposed in this paper. Firstly, a probability nference frame with qualitative indicator measurement is constructed to analyze all kinds of subjective nformation of a single expert based on different acknowledge. Secondly, a model of subjective information measurement is established and then an iteration method is used to acquire expert weights based on ubjective and objective information. Thirdly, a new method of group information aggregation is developed o obtain a qualitative indicator measurement result of an interval probability distribution form by the whole group. Finally, an example shows the validity for proposed method.
作者
乔晗
QIAO Han(School of Economics, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, Chin)
出处
《统计与信息论坛》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第6期16-24,共9页
Journal of Statistics and Information
基金
国家社会科学基金项目<中国税收改革政策宏观效果的统计测度与评价研究>(15BTJ010)
全国统计科学研究项目<中国经济政策不确定性的波动特征与宏观效应研究:统计测度与数值模拟>(2016LY01)
新型城镇化与中原经济区建设河南省协同创新中心资助项目
关键词
定性指标
偏好信息
证据理论
群体评价
qualitative indicator
subjective information
evidence theory
group evaluation
