摘要
我国户籍人口城镇化率长期低于常住人口城镇化率。本文设定趋势预期、意愿预期和目标预期3种空间情景,综合考虑地域均衡、"两率"缩差、财力支撑、"两化"协调、劳动力非农化预期等影响因素,测算"十三五"时期全国31个省(市、区)和四大区域板块进城落户数量,实现农业转移人口及其随迁家属跨板块、跨省域的横向流动和跨等级规模城市的纵向流动,以期实现到2020年户籍人口城镇化达到45%的目标。
Residented population urbanization rate is lower than permanent population urbanization rate for a long time. This paper assumes three spatial concepts for tendency, expectations and goals, considers the influence of regional balanced development, narrows the gap between residented population urbanization rate and permanent population urbanization rate, considers the financial ability of government, coordinates industrialization and urbanization, considers non-agricuhural labor force expectations, measures the number of urban residents in the thirty-one provinces and four major economic plates of west, the east, the northwest and central china in the 13th planning. We allow eligible workers who have left agricultural work to gradually become urban residents, in order to achieve the target 45% in 2020.
出处
《经济体制改革》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第3期24-30,共7页
Reform of Economic System
基金
国家发展和改革委员会宏观经济研究院重点课题(中国经济学术基金资助项目)"加快提高户籍人口城镇化率问题研究"(A2016061012)的研究成果
关键词
户籍人口城镇化率
空间情景
政策建议
residented population urbanization rate
spatial concepts
policy recommendations
