摘要
基于1980—2009年潮州市农业气象站、气象观测站的资料,采用距平百分率、累积距平、滑动t统计值等对近30 a潮州市早稻单产的变化特征及其成因进行了分析。结果表明,潮州市早稻单产在20世纪80年代初期最高,2000年以后单产出现了明显的波动。突变检验表明:早稻单产在1992年出现了突变,从增加向减少的趋势转变;早稻单产的减少与抽穗成熟期(6—7月)降水量的增加关系密切,特别是1992年以后,单产向减少转变与抽穗成熟期降水量增幅的加速之间存在一定的关系。早稻单产影响因子的分析表明,早稻空壳率与早稻单产呈明显的负相关。
Based on agricultural meteorological station data of Chaozhou in 1980-2009, meteorological data including mean temper-ature, precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, sunshine hours, relative humidity and evaporation rate in response to yield of early rice were interpreted. The trend and causes were investigated by methods of percentage of evaporation anomalies, accu-mulative anomalies and moving t test. The result indicated that the yield of early rice peaked in 1980s and fluctuated dramatically af-ter 2000. Mutation test revealed that the turning point of unit yield from increase to decrease occurred in 1992. Unit yield reduction was related to the increased precipitation in late heading period in June and July, especially after 1992 the yield reduction started when the precipitation increased at a higher rate in late heading period in June and July. Furthemiore, influence factor analysis showed that empty grain rate was negatively correlated with early rice yield.
出处
《亚热带农业研究》
2017年第1期59-63,共5页
Subtropical Agriculture Research
关键词
早稻单产
气候变化
滑动t检验
潮州市
yield of early rice
climate change
moving t test
Chaozhou City
