摘要
用澳大利亚热带害虫研究中心开发的通用制模软件Dymex为外壳 ,以棉铃虫Helicoverpaarmigera种群生命表为基础 ,构建了棉铃虫种群动态模型 ,以逐日历史气温统计值为驱动变量进行了第 4、 5代棉铃虫种群动态的模拟。结果表明 ,除早发高温的年份外 ,其它年份的绝大多数第 5代棉铃虫在江苏棉区 11月底前不能发育至蛹而无法安全越冬 ,故不能成为翌年第 1代的有效虫源。根据模拟结果可预测第 4代越冬蛹量及第 5代卵的发生期。
A dynamical model based on a population life table for Helicoverpa armigera was built up using the software Dymex developed by Cooperative Research Center For Tropical Pest Management(CRCFTPM)of Australia. Using daily historic data as the driving variable, simulations ranged from the 4th to the 5th generation of two districts Tongzhou and Siyang were run on respectively. The results indicated that, except for years with the highest temperatures and earliest emergence of this generation, the fifth generation would usually not complete larval development and hibernate successfully, and therefore would not become an effective population source for the following year. Based on the simulations, a predictive table for size of the fourth generation at hibernation and the number and period of 16% of the fifth generation accumulated eggs were presented.
出处
《昆虫学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2002年第4期465-470,共6页
Acta Entomologica Sinica
基金
国家"十五"攻关项目"农作物重大病虫害监测预警技术研究" (2 0 0 1BA5 0PB0 1)
农业部国际先进农业技术引进项目"国家级有害生物灾变预警与决策支持系统" (2 0 10 65 )
关键词
江苏
棉区
第5代棉铃虫
种群动态
模拟
预测
Helicoverpa armigera
the fifth generation
population dynamics
simulation
forecasting
