摘要
本文将宏观投资效率定义为以地级市为单位度量的地区投资率对资本回报率的敏感性。在按照这一定义测算中国宏观投资效率变化趋势的基础上,本文主要关注政府投资规模扩张对宏观投资效率的影响。文章首先估算出2006-2013年中国179个地级市的投资率和资本回报率,发现2009年之后,在地级市投资率大幅攀升的同时,资本回报率却显著下降。计量检验发现,总体上看中国资本流向了资本回报率高的地区;但在2009年后,投资率和资本回报率之间的正相关性显著下降,表明资本回报率对资本流向的指引作用大大下降,宏观投资效率显著恶化。更进一步的计量检验发现,地方融资平台负债规模越大的地级市,投资率和资本回报率之间的负相关性越强,即宏观投资效率越低;地方融资平台负债规模对宏观投资效率的负向影响,主要是在2009年之后才出现。由于地方融资平台规模能够较好地衡量当地政府投资的规模,这一结果表明,2009年之后地方政府投资规模的扩张,已经对宏观投资效率产生负面影响。
This paper defines the macro investment efficiency as the sensitivity of investment rate to capital return at the city level. Based on this definition, the paper studies the changes of macro investment efficiency and focuses on how the expansion of govern- ment＇ s investment influences the macro investment efficiency. The paper first calculates the investment rate and capital return of 179 prefectural cities in China from 2006 to 2013 and find that after 2009 the macro investment efficiency drops dramatically while the investment rate climbs up. There＇ re evidences that although on average China＇ s investment rate is positively correlated with capital return, this positive correlation between investment rate and capital return decreases a lot after 2009, indicating the de- terioration of macro investment efficiency. Furthermore, we find that the higher the local financing vehicles＇ debt to GDP, the more negatively investment rate correlates with capital return. This relationship is observed only after 2009. Since a large share of local government＇ s investments are financed by the local financing vehicles, this result suggests that the expansion of local govern- ments＇ investment has already influenced the macro investment efficiency very badly.
出处
《投资研究》
CSSCI
2017年第1期4-22,共19页
Review of Investment Studies
基金
中国社科院"基础研究学者"项目清华大学中国财政税收研究所的资助
关键词
宏观投资效率
地方融资平台
资本回报率
Macro investment efficiency
Local financing vehicles
Capital return
