摘要
多年来,中国在保持很高投资率的同时,资本回报率却呈现出持续上升的趋势,这在现有理论框架下难以较好地解释。本文以内生视角重审中国经济结构转型,构建了扩展的二元经济模型提供一种可能的解释。本文模型放松了"知识溢出模型"对技术溢出效应的单位弹性假设,提出处于不同发展阶段的经济体维持上升的资本回报率所要求的"强条件"和"弱条件"。理论研究表明,农业劳动力转移因素使资本回报率上升对技术溢出效应的要求降低为弱条件;而实证分析发现,中国技术溢出效应满足弱条件。因此,劳动力转移与技术溢出效应结合是解释中国资本回报率上升之谜的关键。
Recent years, despite a very high and increasing investment rate, capital re- turns in China are still rising. This phenomenon is unique when compared to other international development experiences, and is seemingly inconsistent with the law of diminishing marginal returns. This paper attempts to revisit the dual economy model in an endogenous perspective to Provide an explanation for this puzzling phenomenon. In the model we built,the interaction of agricultural labor transition and capital formation plays a dynamic role in promoting China＇s technological progress. These factors allow technology spillover to be reduced from a ＂strong condition＂ to a ＂weak condition＂ required for the combined phenomenon of a high investment rate and rising capital returns. Empirical evidence shows that spillover effects do exist in China, and they satisfy the weak condition. Therefore, the combined effects of labor transition and technology spillover boost China＇s capital returns.
出处
《经济学（季刊）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第2期817-836,共20页
China Economic Quarterly
