摘要
在出生高峰世代和出生低谷世代依次进入劳动力市场的2000-2030年间,储蓄率路径呈现出类似1980-2010年间历年出生人数所呈现出的先上升后下降的倒U型特征,资本红利滞后、尾随且依附人口红利。2015年之后,随着95后和00后出生低谷一代陆续进入劳动力市场,储蓄率呈现出类似1995年之后出生人数所呈现出的断崖式下降特征,且人力资本的提高无法改变这一趋势,伴随着人口红利的急剧消失,资本红利也加速消失。最后,考察了堵住劳动力出口的延迟退休方案对储蓄率的影响,模拟发现,无论哪种延迟退休方案,都改变不了储蓄率下降的趋势,但是延迟退休可以降低储蓄率下降的幅度,延缓资本红利消失的速度,进而达到为实现两个百年目标保驾护航和提高全要素生产率赢得时间的目的。
Accompanied by a generational change, baby boom and baby bust generation successively enter into the labor market during 2000 to 2030, savings rate path show a similar inverted U path that China＇s annual number of births display during 1980 to 2010, and capital bonus lag the demographic dividend. With post-95s and OOs baby bust generation swooping to enter the labor market in 2015-2030 years, only the improve of human capital and labor participation rate cannot change the trend character of the decline in the savings rate, savings rate trajectory showed the cliff drops characteristics, demographic dividend disappear with capital dividend gradually disappear. The disappearance of the demographic divi- dend will lead to the disappearance of capital dividends.Finally, this paper examines the delay retirement program the effect on the savings rate. It is found that, whether it is gradually delayed retirement, or immediate delay retirement, which can- not change the fact that the capital dividend disappeared, a downward trend of the savings rate. But the delay retirement can reduce the magnitude of the decline in the savings rate, slower capital dividends disappear, escort to achieve China＇s two hundred years goal and gain time of improve the total factor productivity.
出处
《国际金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第4期22-31,共10页
Studies of International Finance
基金
国家社科基金重大项目"新常态下建立多点支撑的消费增长格局研究"(15ZDA013)
上海市浦江人才计划"人口老龄化对我国教育投资的影响研究"(16PJC034)
2013年教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划(NCET-13-0891)
广东省哲学社会科学规划项目"中国高投资低消费的原因及对策研究"(GD14XLJ03)资助
关键词
出生低谷
资本红利
储蓄率
延迟退休
Baby Bust
Capital Dividend
Saving Rate
Delayed Retirement
