摘要
从2008年以来国际货币基金组织的改革过程来看,可以发现美国对同类改革议题的容纳程度存在明显的差异,并直接影响着制度变革的效果。现有的国际制度的内部权力转移、外部竞争压力和国内政治的调节视角,解释了领导国家对制度改革的支持或抵制态度,但缺乏对领导国家应对改革的利益权衡及其策略选择的复杂性分析。作者以国际制度改革对领导权的冲击度、利益兼容度和领导权护持的成本因素所构建的分析框架发现,如果竞争者推动的国际制度改革是对领导权冲击度高的制度性变革且利益兼容度低,会导致既有领导国家的强烈反制;如果是冲击度低的程序性变革且利益兼容度高,既有领导国家会容忍或支持竞争者的改革;如果制度性变革且利益兼容度高,或者程序性变革且利益兼容度低,既有领导国家会依据护持成本选择反制或容忍。1994年至1998年国际货币基金组织框架内的资本账户自由化改革以及1998年至1999年欧盟倡议金融稳定论坛和日本倡议亚洲货币基金组织等案例所呈现的领导权较量表明,新兴大国在国际制度框架内争取制度性权力,需要增加改革方案的利益兼容度及提高既有领导权的护持成本,以推动所期望的制度变革。
The United States has different responses to similar reforms of the Interna-tional Monetary Fund since 2008, which directly affect the result of institutionalchange. The existing analyses, including power transition within the international insti-tutions, the external competition pressure and the domestic political adjustment cost,explain the U.S. stance on the reform. This paper constructs an analytical framework,based on the impact of the institutional reform on the current leadership, the compati-bility of interest between competitors and leaders as independent variables, and thecost of leadership maintenance as an adjustment variable, the leaders response strategyas the dependent variable, to deepen the understanding of the trade-off between lead-ership and material interests. The cases selected here are the liberalization of capitalaccount reform within the IMF from 1994 to 1998, the leadership contest presented bythe European Union initiative for Financial Stability Forum and the Japan initiative forthe Asian Monetary Fund from 1998 to 1999. When the emerging powers want to seekinstitutional power within the international institutions, they need to increase the com-patibility of the interests of the reform program and to increase the cost of the existingleadership to promote the desired institutional change.
出处
《世界经济与政治》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第3期35-61,共27页
World Economics and Politics
基金
国家社会科学基金重点项目"自由贸易区建设与亚太安全关系重构研究"(项目编号:15AGJ006)的阶段性成果
关键词
国际制度设计
制度变革
领导权护持
制度性权力
全球治理
institutional design
institutional transformation
leadership maintenance
institutional power
global governance
