摘要
伴随中国对外直接投资规模的不断扩大,以及海外中国公民数量的持续攀升,中国海外利益规模也随之上升。随着"一带一路"构想的提出与落实,中国"走出去"的步伐在加快,导致相关的风险急剧增加,引发了诸多针对海外中国人的群体性事件。文章根据群体性反华事件的相关动因建立了一个解释机制,并利用近年来发生的群体性反华事件进行了检验。文章认为,一国的经济发展水平、对华好感度、中国公民与当地民众间的融合度与海外群体性反华事件的发生呈负相关,中国在该国的对外直接投资水平、双边摩擦水平等与海外群体性反华事件的发生呈正相关。其发生机制为:在一国经济发展出现下滑引发国内矛盾的情况下,中国在该国持续增长的对外直接投资比重与该国较低的对华好感度作为催化剂,中国与该国的主权、经贸摩擦或中国公民与当地民众间较低的融合度作为导火索,最终引发海外群体性反华事件。文章还利用检验后的解释机制,对如何防范相关危机进行了探讨。
This article attempts to develop a framework for explaining such collective incidents targeted at Chinese nationals by considering the motivations behind them,and to test this argument empirically based on analysis of recent incidents.It is argued here that there is a negative relationship between the occurrence of collective anti-Chinese incidents overseas and a state’s level of economic development,feelings of positive sentiment towards China,and level of social integration;at the same time,there is a positive relationship between collective anti-Chinese incidents and the level of Chinese direct investment in the country,and the level of frictions in bi-lateral relations.The causal mechanism identified is as follows:when domestic conflict emerges as a result of a decline in a state’s level of economic development,the rising proportion of Chinese direct investment compared to the overall economy collides with low levels of pro-Chinese sentiment in the country,and frictions between China and that state over sovereignty issues,commercial and trade frictions,or the low level of integration between Chinese citizens and members of the local population ultimately spark a collective anti-Chinese incident.The article also uses the explanatory mechanism identified through the empirical research to consider how such crises might be prevented.
出处
《当代亚太》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第1期44-70,共27页
Journal of Contemporary Asia-Pacific Studies
关键词
“一带一路”
群体性反华事件
海外中国公民
动因分析
'One Belt One Road'
Collective Anti-Chinese Incidents
Overseas Chinese Nationals
Causal Analysis
