摘要
引入三期迭代理论模型,从理论上研究老龄化对居民储蓄的影响,结果表明随着老龄化程度的提高,储蓄率将降低。在理论模型的引导下,选取江西省1985—2014年的时间序列数据,构建VEC模型,对江西省人口老龄化对居民储蓄的影响进行实证研究。协整检验结果显示江西省人口老龄化对居民储蓄具有长期的负向影响;VEC模型表明其在短期内也具有负向作用;方差分析结果表明这种负向作用有较高的影响程度,贡献度高达41.7%。最后对研究结果进行分析,并针对如何合理应对老龄化问题提出相应的政策建议。
Using three-stage iterative theoretical model, this paper does a theoretical study of the impact of aging population on household savings. The result shows that with the increasing aging population, household savings are decreasing. According to the theoretical model, this paper, choosing 1985-2014 time series data of Jiangxi Province and constructing the VEC model, makes an empirical study of the impact of aging population on the household savings. The VEC model shows that aging society has a negative effect on household savings in the short term. The analysis of variance shows that this negative effect has a very high degree of influence, contribut- ing up to 41.7%. Finally, this paper analyzes the research results and puts forward some suggestions for making corresponding policies.
出处
《无锡商业职业技术学院学报》
2017年第1期28-32,共5页
Journal of Wuxi Vocational Institute of Commerce
基金
江西省研究生创新专项资金项目(YC2016-S242)
江西财经大学第十一届学生科研课题(No.XS16468)
江西财经大学第十一届学生科研课题(No.XS16471)
关键词
江西省
VEC模型
人口老龄化
居民储蓄
Jiangxi Province
VEC model
aging population
household savings
