摘要
一种比较流行的观点认为,人口老龄化和总人口减少是制约经济发展的首要因素。近年来,随着中国人口老龄化的发展而引发的劳动力供给不足以及成本上升,一些观点认为中国将面临潜在增长率下降的可能,并据此唱衰中国。不可否认,在不存在技术进步的前提下,人口老龄化对经济增长有一定的影响,但影响程度究竟有多大,是否是当前经济发展当中出现的主要矛盾,值得商榷。从全球的视野来看,人口老龄化成为各国发展中不可避免的社会趋势,多个西方发达国家已经经历过或正在经历老龄化进程,且老龄化将成为较长时期内都难以摆脱的常态。在这一背景下,各国试图通过结构性改革,尤其是制度创新,将优化劳动力供给结构作为重要抓手,以应对人口老龄化对经济增长的消极影响。
A prevailing view considers the aging and declination of population to be the primary factor holding back the development of economy. In recent years, China saw the growing aging population and the consequent shortage in labor supply and increase of labor costs. Based on this, some pessimists assumed that the economic growth rate would suffer potential decline. Undeniably, without taken into consideration of the development of technology, aging population would have negative influence on economic growth. Yet it＇s still too early to say how great the influence would be and judge it as the key trouble in economic development. Actually aging population is a global problem, which has been or is an on-going problem in many Western countries, and it will keep haunting for a long time. In this context, many countries actively tackle this problem by undertaking structural reform, in which institutional innovation and optimization of labor force supply always become the first choice.
出处
《财政科学》
2016年第12期97-101,109,共6页
Fiscal Science
关键词
人口老龄化
经济增长
劳动力
Aging Population
Economic Development
Labor Force
