摘要
本文基于EBM-Luenberger分析模型,构建非参数生产前沿分析框架,分解1995-2014年中国经济增长,剖析效率改善的贡献,以评估经济发展方式转型效果。研究显示:虽然要素投入仍是近20年中国经济发展的主要动因,但是效率改善对经济发展的贡献在不断提高,从2012年起中国已经进入粗放型发展向质量型发展转变的过渡期;技术进步是效率改善的主要推动力;东部地区转型效果较好,发展方式即将实现向质量型的转变,中部、西部地区转型速度最快;省际层面中,2014年上海等5个省市经济发展实现了从粗放型向质量型的转变,贵州等9个省区仍属于粗放型发展,安徽等16个省市处于从粗放型到质量型的过渡期。基于研究成果,本文针对中国经济发展方式转型中的重点和难点,从如何处理发展方式转型和经济发展的关系,如何长久地保持效率改善对经济发展的贡献提出了政策建议。
The analysis framework of non-parametric production frontier is built based on EBM- Luenberger model in this paper. The China＇s economic growth is decomposed as the contribution during 1995--2014 to anatomize the contribution of efficiency and assess the transformation effect of China＇s economic development mode. Firstly, in spite of the factors inputs is still the main motivation of China＇s economic development, but the contribution from efficiency improvement is playing more important roles, and China has entered a transition from extensive development to quality and efficiency development since 2012. Secondly, technological progress is the main driving force of China＇s economic development mode transformation. Thirdly, the effect in east is better than other areas and it achieves the stage concerning quality of development, and the middle and western regions are the fastest. Fourthly, in 2014 five provinces and cities （such as Shanghai） had realized the transformation from extensive to quality, seven provinces （such as） Guizhou still belonged extensive development. Anhui and other 16 provinces and cities belonged to the transition from extensive to quality. Based on the research results, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions on how to deal with the relationship between development mode transformation and economic development, and how to improve the contribution of efficiency for economic development in long time, focusing on the key and difficult points in China＇s economic development mode transformation.
出处
《财贸经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第1期21-33,共13页
Finance & Trade Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金面上项目“强可持续视角下欠发达地区绿色发展机制与路径选择研究”(16BJL116)
