摘要
本文基于治理全球金融危机与常规货币政策失效的大背景,探讨公共债务货币化对经济增长和物价水平的影响机制,选取了五个国家和地区2008—2015年的月度数据建立面板VAR模型,结合对美国和日本的个案,实证分析了公共债务货币化对宏观经济的影响。实证结果显示,公共债务货币化对经济增长和物价水平具有短期的脉冲式影响,且传导渠道的作用效果并不一致,增加货币供应量和市场信心的作用较为明显;美国公共债务货币化对宏观经济影响的传导机制畅通且取得了良好的效果,表现在直接融资市场活跃弥补了商业银行"惜贷"的负面影响,而日本则由于传导机制的不畅和间接融资的局限性未取得预期效果。最后,提出中国应该正确认识并合理利用公共债务货币化,改善国内金融环境、促进直接融资发展以及完善国债和地方债市场等政策建议。
After the financial crisis,quantitative easing policy became the ＂recipe＂ for macroeconomic regula tion and economic recovery, which was regard the public debt monetization as the core. Although many countries have opted for large-scale public debt monetization operations, the specific implementation effects are not the same. Whether the central bank＇ s purchasing a large scale of government debt will help the economic recovery and realize policy objectives, it has aroused the widespread concern of policy decision-makers and scholars in various countries. In this paper, we theoretically analyzed the macroeconomic effects of the public debt monetization and put for- ward three hypotheses, the first hypothesis is that the public debt monetization is conducive to economic growth, the second hypothesis is the public debt monetization can help raise the price level, the third one is that the effects of public debt monetization on the economy are related to the structure of their financial markets. Then, the paper takes the United States and Japan as examples to observe the performance of the economic growth and inflation under the public debt monetization. We found that with the operation of each public debt mone- tization, economic growth and prices can have a short-term recovery,but both of them will fall after several time. In order to get further results, this paper selects five countries and regions＇ （US, Japan, UK, Eurozone, Canada） monthly data from 2008 to 2015 to establish the panel VAR model. Combining with the US and Japan, we get the empirical analysis of the impact of the public debt monetization on the macro-economy. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows ： （ 1 ） the macroeconomic regulation and control function of the public debt monetization can manifest the effect through the money supply, long-term interest rate and market confidence to recovery economic and increase price level; （2） the result of trend analysis and international panel data model show that the publ
出处
《经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第1期6-21,共16页
Business and Management Journal ( BMJ )
基金
国家社会科学基金项目"财政货币政策协调配合中公共债务货币化问题研究"(13BJY157)
关键词
经济危机
公共债务货币化
宏观调控
面板VAR
economic crisis
public debt monetization
macroeconomic control
panel VAR
