摘要
财政收入增速放缓、支出刚性增长、收支缺口扩大将是我国财政运行的"新常态",而在财政新常态下,面临着稳定经济增长和防范债务悬崖的权衡。利用政府债务可持续模型,对上述两种政策取向进行了量化估测,在此基础上,提出要坚持财政审慎和管控债务原则,同时兼顾稳定经济增长,应坚持实践思维,利用PPP模式防止出现"财政悬崖",注重供给管理,不逾越债务货币化的红线。
China＇s financial operation is entering a new normal in which the fiscal revenue slow down, expenditure increase rapidly and the gap between them expand constantly. In this new normal, we faced a tradeoff between economic growth and government debt cliffs. By using the model of government debt sustainability, these two kinds of policy orientation above have been researched quantitatively. As a conclusion, we should insist the principle of fiscal prudence and controlling debt. Meanwhile, economic growth should also be considered, the practice thinking should be insisted and using PPP mode to guard against the financial cliff. Moreover, we should emphase on supply management and avoide monetization of public debt.
出处
《改革》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第6期53-63,共11页
Reform
关键词
财政赤字
政府债务
公共财政收支
financial deficits, government debt, public financial revenue and expenditure
