摘要
文章主要研究了安徽省某气象台站年平均气温、月平均气温的结构性变化情况。该文在对气温数据进行正态性检验的基础上,运用ASAMC(annealing stochastic approximation Monte Carlo)算法对气温数据进行统计分析,估计出平均气温结构性变化的位置,并探索发生结构性变化的气象因素和非气象因素。
In this paper, the investigation on structural changes of annual and monthly mean tempera- ture based on the statistics of a meteorological station in Anhui Province is conducted. Firstly, the normality test of temperature statistics is conducted. Then the temperature data is analyzed by using the annealing stochastic approximation Monte Carlo（ASAMC） algorithm, and the structural changes of mean temperature are estimated. The meteorological and non-meteorological factors leading to the structural changes are also explored by this method.
出处
《合肥工业大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第12期1719-1723,共5页
Journal of Hefei University of Technology：Natural Science
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(11201108)
全国统计科研计划重点资助项目(2012LZ009)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(JZ2015HGXJ0177)
关键词
ASAMC算法
Bayes多变点模型
M-H算法
平均气温
annealing stochastic approximation Monte Carlo （ASAMC） algorithm
Bayesian multiple change-point model
M-H algorithm
mean temperature
