摘要
铀资源是军民两用的重要战略资源,有必要研究其价格变化为政府决策提供依据.采用基于Schwarz信息准则的统计变点检测方法,识别出1990-2013年国际天然铀价格的多个均值-方差变点,据此将国际天然铀价格的变化分为稳中下降期、大幅上扬期、震荡回归期和持续下降期四个阶段.研究结果表明,核事故、二次铀源、核电政策是影响国际天然铀价格的重要因素,同时天然铀逐渐显示出其商品的属性,其价格受供需关系的影响明显.
Uranium is an important strategic resource of dual-use, so it is necessary to analyze the uranium price to provide advice to the government. The change points in mean-variance of the uranium price in 1990-2013 are identified based on the Schwarz information criterion. The change of the uranium price can be divided into four stages： steady down, rising sharply, gyration during the dip and Continuous dropping. The result shows that the nuclear accident, secondary uranium source and nuclear power policy can affect the uranium price deeply. And the uranium price gradually shows its commodity attribute which is affected by supply and demand.
出处
《数学的实践与认识》
北大核心
2016年第1期47-52,共6页
Mathematics in Practice and Theory
基金
国家社会科学基金(11ZD167)
对外经济贸易大学学术创新团队建设项目(CXTD5-05)
