摘要
利用1961-2014年湖北省主产县油菜产量统计资料及同期气象观测资料,采用决策树和随机森林模型,对影响油菜产量的气候因子进行分析。结果表明:温度、日照时数及干旱、湿渍害对油菜产量均有不同程度的影响,且因生育期不同而存在差异。油菜开花期以前对低温敏感,开花期以后对高温敏感;苗期和蕾薹期对干旱较敏感,开花期和角果期对湿渍害更敏感;日照时数对油菜产量的影响受水分状况的制约,在干旱状况下日照偏多不利于产量形成,偏湿状况下则表现为日照越多越有利于产量形成。在各限制因子中,以湿渍害发生频率对油菜产量的影响最高,其次是干旱和冻害。湿渍害对产量的影响以高湿寡照的次生灾害影响较土壤偏湿的直接影响更大。
Based on the county level census yield data as well as the corresponding weather observations during 1961-2014, yield limiting factors for oilseed rape in Hubei province were analyzed by employing two flexible nonparametric models such as Classification and Regression Trees （CART） and Random Forests model. The results showed that temperature, sunshine hours, as well as drought/waterlogging had significant effects on yield, and such impacts varied among different phenological stages. Oilseed rape was sensitive to low temperature before flowering while sensitive to high temperature from then on, and sensitive to drought during seedling and budding stages, while sensitive to waterlogging during flowering and podding stages, effect of sunshine hours was highly dependent on water condition, with a negative effect under water deficits, while a positive effect when there was excess rainfall. Among all the limiting factors, waterlogging had the highest occurrence frequency, followed by drought and cold damage. Waterlogging reduced yield directly by limiting root aerobic respiration, as well as decreased in photosynttfesis and increased in disease incidence due to absence of sunshine and high humidity, and the latter was more important.
出处
《中国农业气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第6期691-699,共9页
Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology
基金
公益性行业(气象)科研专项"作物湿渍害星地一体化监测与预警技术研究及应用示范"(GYHY201406028)
关键词
油菜
气候因子
湿渍害
权重湿润指数
非参数统计
Oilseed rape
Climatic factors
Waterlogging
Weighted moisture index
Non-parametric statistics
