摘要
配电网电缆故障直接关系到用户和电力公司的切身利益,且电缆线路故障具有较高不确定性,有必要进行风险评估。首先,以故障成本作为综合风险指标建立配电网电缆故障风险评估模型,故障成本包括故障维修成本、直接故障成本及间接故障成本。直接故障成本通过缺电成本进行量化,间接故障成本考虑线路故障对社会生产及公司信誉的影响。其次,针对故障的不确定性,采用蒙特卡罗模拟法对故障发生的随机过程进行模拟,实现故障成本的计算。最后,通过仿真算例对不同情况下铜芯电缆和铝合金电缆的风险进行评估分析,表明所建立模型的可行性和实用性。
The cable faults are highly related to the benefit of customers and power utilities in distribution network. It is necessary to evaluate the risk because faults are highly random. Firstly, using failure cost as an overall index, a risk assessment model was established for cables in distribution network. Failure cost including maintenance cost, direct failure cost, and indirect failure cost, where direct failure cost can be calculated according to shortage power cost and indirect failure cost considers effects on social production and company reputation. Secondly, the uncertainty of the faults was simulated based on Monte Carlo method to calculate to overall cost. Finally, a practical case study on risk assessment of copper cable and aluminum alloy cable under different circumstances was implemen- ted and discussed, which shows the feasibility and practicability of the proposed model.
出处
《计算机仿真》
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第12期128-131,142,共5页
Computer Simulation
基金
国网福建省电力有限公司电力科学研究院科技项目(SGTYHT/14-JS-190)
关键词
电力电缆
风险评估
故障成本
蒙特卡罗
仿真
Power cable
Risk Assessment
Failure cost
Monte Carlo
Simulation
