摘要
本文引入贝叶斯学习模型,分析宏观经济变量和媒体报道对中国公众和专家的通胀预期异质性的影响,估计实际通胀率、通胀率的平方、GDP同比增长率和通胀波动性等宏观经济变量,以及媒体报道总量、媒体报道内容的异质性和媒体报道口吻等媒体报道变量对预期异质性的影响。结果表明,公众和专家的预期异质性都会受到GDP同比增长率和通胀波动的影响,而实际通胀水平作用甚微;公众预期的异质性取决于媒体报道的异质性和报道口吻,而非媒体报道的总量;媒体报道几乎不影响专家的预期异质性;关于通货紧缩的报道会提高公众和专家预期的异质程度。因此,政府对媒体报道的真实和准确必须加以监管,货币政策需要充分考虑媒体报道的角色并借以传递政策目标,引导公众通胀预期,进而提升货币政策的实施效果。
This paper introduces the Bayesian learning model to analyze the impact of macroeconomic variables and media coverage on the heterogeneity of inflation expectations of the public and experts in China. We estimate the influence of macroeconomic variables, including the actual inflation rate, squared inflation rate, GDP growth rate and inflation volatility, and media coverage variables, i. e. , the volume, disagreement and tone of media coverage, on the heterogeneity of inflation expectations. The results of parameter estimation show that the heterogeneity of inflation expectations of both the public and the experts is affected by GDP growth rate and inflation volatility, while the actual inflation rate has little effect. The heterogeneity of the public depends on the disagreement and tone but not the volume of media coverage. And, media coverage hardly affects the heterogeneity of experts. Meanwhile, reports of deflation will increase the heterogeneity of both the public and the experts. Therefore, the government must regulate the authenticity and accuracy of media coverage, and monetary policy should consider the role of media and convey the policy goals through it, guide the public inflation expectations to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy.
出处
《财贸经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第12期57-70,共14页
Finance & Trade Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金项目"通货膨胀预期异质性研究"(12CJL019)
关键词
预期异质性
媒体报道
通货膨胀
贝叶斯学习模型
Heterogeneity of Expectations, Media Coverage, Inflation, Bayesian Learning Model
