摘要
提出模糊时间序列预测的一种改进模型IFTSFM,重新研究莆田湄洲岛旅游人数预测问题,当进行历史数据的模拟预测时AFER比应用GM(1,1)灰色模型预测时更小.IFTSFM也可进行未知的旅游人数的预测.方法预测公式简洁,计算方便,历史数据模拟预测误差率较小,为研究时间序列预测问题增加一种新方法.
This paper presents an improved method named as Improved Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting Model（IFTSFM） for fuzzy time series forecasting to re-examine the prediction on number of tourists in Meizhou island of Putian,to achieve a lower average forecasting error rate（AFER） in simulation-based prediction of historical data,comparing to the grey model GM（1,1）.IFTSFM could also be applied in forecasting the number of visitors for the coming years.Furthermore,the IFTSFM is easy to calculate,with simple prediction formula,lower AFER in historical data as a result.
作者
杨洁
王鸿绪
赵方
YANG Jie WANG Hong-xu ZHAO Fang(School of Chinese Materia Medica, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, Beijing 100102, China School of China and Austria, Hainan Tropical Marine University, Sanya 572022 China School of Information Science and Technology, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China)
出处
《数学的实践与认识》
北大核心
2016年第22期279-285,共7页
Mathematics in Practice and Theory
基金
海南省哲学社会科学规划课题(HNSK14-50)
海南省自然科学基金(714283
114011)
关键词
模糊时间序列
预测
IFTSFM
逆模糊数
旅游人数
fuzzy time series
forecasting
iftsfm
inverse fuzzy number
the number of visitors
