摘要
应用STIRPAT模型研究1997~2012年京津冀经济圈人口规模、人口结构、经济水平及技术水平对碳排放的影响。结果表明,经济水平、人口规模、城镇化水平、人口年龄结构和人口就业结构促进碳排放增加,而平均家庭规模和能源强度对碳排放有抑制作用。此外,经济水平是碳排放的主要驱动因素,平均家庭规模是主要抑制因素。人口结构因素方面,城镇化进程的加速有利于能源消耗;人口年龄结构以增加劳动力供应及促进消费需求的方式促进碳排放增长;逐渐缩小的平均家庭规模导致人均能耗及家庭数量的增长,进而推动能源消耗增长;人口就业结构中工业部门就业率的增长导致碳排放的增加。结合研究结果和京津冀经济圈的发展现状,提出政策建议。
This paper examines the impacts of population size, population structure, economic level, and technology level on carbon emissions, from 1997 to 2012, in the BTH economic circle by using the STIRPAT model. Results indicate that carbon emissions is positively influenced by economic level, population size, urbanization level, population age structure, population structure of employment, and GDP per capita, but negatively influenced by average family size and energy intensity. Moreover, economic level is the main driving factor of carbon emissions. Average family size is the main factor to control carbon emissions. In terms of population structure, the rapid urbanization contributes to energy consumption, and the effect of age structure acted through increasing supply of the labor and consuming demands. Shrinking average family size increases per capita consumption expenditure and total number of households, thus leading to more energy consumption. Employment structure increases the industry sector employment, resulting in larger carbon emissions. Combining these empirical findings and specific circumstances, some policy recommendations are made.
出处
《电子科技大学学报（社科版）》
2016年第6期45-50,共6页
Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China(Social Sciences Edition)
基金
国家自然科学基金(71373172)
