摘要
利用多状态人口预测模型,以2010年人口普查数据为基期数据,结合现有对未来生育水平、死亡水平、流动迁移水平以及教育转换等研究结果设定预测参数,预测了"全面二孩"政策启动后2010-2030年期间我国人口和人力资本态势趋势变化。比较不同生育率方案下,"全面二孩"分城乡分性别人口规模、年龄结构和教育结构的变化,为"全面二孩"政策实施后人口发展和社会经济政策的制定与调整提供参考。
The article used PDE model, a multi -state population prediction model, to predictChinese population and human capital situation from 2010to2030 after ＂Two -Child Policy＂.2010 census data were used as the originaldatabase. After adjusting the original database ac-cording to the existing studies ,fertility, mortality, net migration size and education transfer ratewere estimated. This article gave an analysis and comparisonon the population size, populationstructureand educationstructure in different fertility prediction scenario. It had a reference valueon population development after ＂Two -Child Policy＂ as well as economic and social develop-ment decisions.
作者
罗雅楠
程云飞
郑晓瑛
LUO Ya-nan CHENG Yun-fei ZHENG Xiao-ying(Institute of Population Research, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China)
出处
《人口与发展》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第5期2-14,共13页
Population and Development
关键词
人口预测
PDE模型
人力资本
二孩政策
population projection
PDE model
human capital
＂Two - Child Policy＂
