摘要
笔者选取2004年~2015年的月度数据,运用回归分析的方法,研究我国小麦、大米、玉米和大豆四种粮食作物的价格影响因素。研究发现,国际粮食价格与我国大米和大豆价格表现为显著的正向相关关系;国际原油价格与我国大米和玉米价格表现为显著的正向相关关系,与大豆价格表现为负向相关关系;种粮成本与小麦、大米和玉米价格表现为显著的正向相关关系;广义货币供应量与小麦、大米和玉米价格表现为显著的正向相关关系。提高粮食自给率水平、加大补贴力度和制定科学的宏观政策对我国粮食价格的稳定、粮食产业的发展具有重要的理论和现实意义。
Based on the monthly data from 2004 to 2015,the paper uses the regression analysis to discuss the influence factors of wheat,rice,corn and soybean,the four grain crops. The result shows that international grain price demonstrates a positive correlation with the price of rice and soybean in China. International crude oil price shows a positive correlation with Chinses rice and corn,whereas a negative correlation with Chinese soybean. Grain cost displays a remarkable positive correlation with the price of Chinese wheat,rice and corn. Generalized money supply demonstrates a positive correlation with the price of Chinese wheat,rice and corn. Increasing grain self-sufficiency ratio and the intensity of subsidies,and making scientific macroscopical policy have great theoretical and practical significance of the stability and development of grain industry.
出处
《经济经纬》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第6期54-59,共6页
Economic Survey
关键词
粮食价格
国际原油价格
种粮成本
广义货币供应量
Grain Price
International Crude Oil Price
Grain Cost
Generalized Money Supply
