摘要
首先提出风电功率时间序列的可预测性概念,并利用近似熵和可预测系数对可预测性进行定量分析,在此基础上分析不同空间尺度下近似熵和可预测系数的变化规律,最后利用吉林省西部某风电场的实测数据进行验证,几种典型预测方法下的计算结果表明,该文提出的指标能有效表征风电功率的可预测程度。
The predictability concept of wind power on the time series was presented and the approximate entropy algorithm and predictable coefficient were used to quantificationally analyze the predictability of wind power on time series, then the approximate entropy and predictable coefficient variation at different spatial scale were analyzed. Finally, the measured data of a wind farm in western Jilin were used for testing and confirming the result. The results of several typical prediction methods show that the proposed method can effectively characterize predictability of wind power on time series.
出处
《太阳能学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第10期2710-2718,共9页
Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica
基金
国家重点基础研究发展(973)计划(2013CB228201)
国家自然科学基金(51307017)
吉林省科技发展计划(20140520129JH)
吉林省产业技术研究与开发专项(2014Y124)
国家留学基金(201507790001)
关键词
风电功率
可预测性
空间尺度
近似熵
wind power
predictability
spatial scale
approximate entropy
