摘要
通过构建EMD模型,对我国粮食产量结构和人均口粮占有量进行分析与预测。结果显示,我国三大主粮产量增长不平衡,玉米产量增长迅速,超过稻谷和小麦。这种情况,一方面增加了饲料粮、工业粮和能源粮的供给,另一方面导致口粮供给不足,影响我国的人口增长。因此,调整粮食供给结构对粮食安全和国民经济运行至关重要。
This paper makes an analysis and forecast of the crop structure and per capita ration of China. The study shows the production growth of the three staple crops is unbalanced. The production of the maize grows fast, exceeding that of the rice and wheat, which, on the one hand, increases the supply of forage crop, industrial crop and energy crop, and, on the other hand, results in the shortage of the ration for people. It seriously influences the population growth in China, so it is meaningful to the crop security and national economic operation for the government to adjust the structure of crop supply.
作者
白梦娇
贾利军
BAI Mengjiao JIA Lijun(Beijing Institute of TechnologySchool of Hmnanities and Social Science, Beijing,100081)
出处
《管理学刊》
2016年第5期22-28,共7页
Journal of Management
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(14BJL079)
关键词
粮食结构
人均口粮
人口增长
粮食安全
Crop Structure, Per Capita Ration, Population Growth, Crop Security
