摘要
针对《国家电网公司安全事故调查规程》中缺乏电力通信相关事件量化的现状,分析了电力通信网相关的安全事件,结合事件的具体定义,兼顾业务重要度、影响范围、影响时长等因素,提出了一种有效的安全事件量化模型和预测方法。对于模型中各个量化参数的取值,给出了相应的依据和分析。实际验证结果表明,该模型能够有效区分不同级别的安全事件,并基于各种外在诱因的量化概率,预测出不同故障下可能导致的安全事件,为网络提前规避风险,保障网络的稳定运行起到重要的辅助决策作用。
In the regulations of＂Security Accident Investigation Regulations of State Grid＂, there are lack of quantification methods for power communication network related security events. In this paper, we first analyze the security events about power communication network. Then considering service importance, effect scope, effect duration and such factors, we give an effective security events qualification model and predication method according to their specific definitions. Moreover, for the value of different quantified factors, we give corresponding basis and analysis. Practical verification shows that the model can distinguish security events for different levels. With quantified probabilities of different outsides inducement factors, it can predicate the possible events caused by different faults. Thus, our model can avoid network risks, and guarantee the stable operations of power communication networks.
作者
邢宁哲
卜亚杰
常海娇
喻鹏
XING Ning-zhe BU Ya-jie CHANG Hai-jiao YU Peng(Information and Communication Branch, State Grid Jibei Electric Power Company, Beijing 100053, China State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876, China)
出处
《电力信息与通信技术》
2016年第10期120-126,共7页
Electric Power Information and Communication Technology
基金
国家电网公司科技项目"基于安全事件导向的电力通信网预警模型及优化策略研究"
关键词
安全事件
量化模型
风险预测
电力通信网
security events
quantification model
risk predication
power communication network
