摘要
灾害实时风险监测对抗灾减灾工作具有重要的作用。以干旱灾害风险的业务化监测为出发点,从造成农作物干旱灾害的致灾因子危险性、承灾体脆弱性和孕灾环境稳定性3方面入手,采用相关系数法和熵权法确定干旱灾害实时风险监测的指标体系和权重,基于风险加权求和、幂权乘积模型对农作物干旱灾害风险进行了实时监测研究。以2014年河南干旱为例,结果表明,灾害风险的变化是致灾因子和承灾体及孕灾环境三者的叠合效应。整体上,2014年河南干旱农作物风险表现为7月份风险最高,8月份次之,9月份最低,与统计的灾情数据趋势一致;在空间上,中部地区较高,南北相对较轻,符合灾情数据的空间分布。研究结果表明基于本研究思路构建的指标体系和风险评估方法能很好地展现河南农作物干旱灾害风险的时空变化规律,在未来农业干旱风险的实时监测业务上具有一定的推广和参考价值。
The real-time disaster risk monitoring plays an important role in work of disaster resistance and mitiga- tion. In order to realize the operational monitoring of drought disaster risk, this paper built the index system and re- al-time risk monitoring model of crop drought disaster by comprehensively considered the hazard of disaster-causing factors, the vulnerability of bearing body and the stability of the disaster-forming environment. The index weight of drought disaster risk was determined by using Correlation Coefficient Method and Entropy Weight Method. The risk of crop drought disaster was estimated by weighted sum and power product model. Take the drought of Henan Prov- ince in 2014 as an example, results showed that the change of disaster risk was caused by the combined effects of the hazard of disaster-causing factors, the vulnerability of bearing body and the stability of the disaster-forming envi- ronment. On the whole, the drought risk of Henan Province is highest in July, followed by August, and September was the lowest in Henan Province in 2014. The change trend of risk is consistent with that of loss reported by statistic. Spatially, the central region was relatively high and the north and south was relatively light, which is same as the spatial distribution of actual disaster data. The research results indicate that the index system and risk assessment method presented in this paper can well show the spatiotemporal variation law of crop drought disaster risk in Henan Province, and have some promotion and reference value for the real time monitoring of agricultural drought risk in the future.
作者
夏兴生
朱秀芳
潘耀忠
张锦水
XIA Xingsheng ZHU Xiufang PAN Yaozhong ZHANG Jinshui(College of Resources Science ＆ Technology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)
出处
《自然灾害学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第5期28-36,共9页
Journal of Natural Disasters
基金
国家"高分辨率对地观测系统"重大专项
国家青年自然科学基金项目(41401479)~~
关键词
实时风险
相关系数法
熵权法
干旱
农作物
河南省
real time risk
correlation coefficient method
entropy weight method
drought
crop
Henan Province
