摘要
干旱灾害对农业和经济发展影响巨大,加强干旱灾害研究对社会发展意义重大。基于CiteSpace计量统计方法,在CNKI(中国知网)数据库中,以关键词或篇名或摘要中含有“农业干旱”为检索条件、1979-2018年为检索时段,共检索到1 220条记录,通过关键词共现和聚类分析得出如下结论:(1)中国农业干旱研究经历“缓慢增长-快速波动增长-剧烈波动增长”3个时期,各时期发文占比依次为:4.15%、20.16%、75.69%。(2)农业干旱研究机构可划分为:干旱监测预警型研究机构、干旱机制型研究机构、干旱灾害评估型研究机构和区域性干旱研究机构4种类型。其中,干旱监测预警型研究机构共发文24篇,年度最高论文发表频率的变化范围为2.0~7.5;干旱机制型研究机构共发文54篇,年度最高论文发表频率的变化范围为2.0~4.0;干旱灾害评估型研究机构共发文68篇,年度最高论文发表频率的变化范围为3.0~4.0;区域性干旱研究机构共发文32篇,年度最高论文发表频率的变化范围为2.0~7.0。在未来农业干旱灾害研究中,应关注发展高精度、大尺度的定量干旱监测模型,建立有针对性、系统性的干旱机理研究体系和干旱风险评估管理体系。
Drought disasters have a great impact on agricultural and economic development. It is of great significance to strengthen the research on drought disasters for social development. Based on CiteSpace statistical method, 1 220 records are retrieved in CNKI database with ″agricultural drought″ in keywords or titles or abstracts as the retrieval condition and 1979-2018 as the retrieval period. Through keyword co-occurrence and cluster analysis, the conclusions are as follows. Firstly, the agricultural drought research in China has experienced three periods of ″slow growth-rapid fluctuation growth-violent fluctuation growth″, and the proportion of published papers in each period was 4.15%, 20.16% and 75.69% respectively. Secondly, agricultural drought research institutions can be divided into four types: drought monitoring and early warning research institutions, drought mechanism research institutions, drought disaster assessment research institutions and regional drought research institutions. Among them, drought monitoring and early warning research institutions have issued a total of 24 papers, and the annual maximum paper publishing frequency ranges from 2.0 to 7.5. A total of 54 papers have been published by drought mechanism research institutions, and the variation range of the annual maximum paper publishing frequency is 2.0 to 4.0. A total of 68 papers have been issued by drought disaster assessment research institutions, and the variation range of annual maximum paper publishing frequency is 3.0 to 4.0. A total of 32 papers have been issued by regional drought research institutions, and the variation range of the annual maximum paper publishing frequency is 2.0 to 7.0. In the future research on agricultural drought disasters, attention should be paid to the development of high-precision, large-scale quantitative drought monitoring models, and the establishment of a targeted and systematic drought mechanism research system and drought risk assessment management system.
作者
高超
赵强强
张菲菲
GAO Chao;ZHAO Qiangqiang;ZHANG Feifei(Department of Geography and Spatial Information Technology,Ningbo University,Ningbo 315211,China)
出处
《华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）》
北大核心
2022年第2期1-9,共9页
Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power：Natural Science Edition
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41871024)。
关键词
干旱监测
研究进展
干旱评估
干旱机制
农业干旱
drought monitoring
research progress
drought assessment
drought mechanism
agricultural drought
