摘要
根据1985～2014年海南省城乡居民人均消费、人均收入、消费价格指数等数据，探索影响海南城乡居民消费水平和消费差距的主要因素。利用逐步回归进行变量筛选，消除多重共线性，发现农村居民消费水平受收入水平和价格水平的影响显著；城镇居民消费水平由收入水平唯一决定，符合绝对收入假说；城乡居民收入差距和储蓄差距对消费差距影响显著，消费差距函数符合生命周期假说的近似形式。消费水平的误差修正模型的结果表明：收入和物价对农村居民消费水平的长期边际效应大于短期；收入对城镇居民消费水平的短期边际效应大于长期。消费差距的误差修正模型结果表明：城乡收入差距对消费差距的短期效应略大于长期；储蓄差距对消费差距的长期、短期边际效应都较小，长期边际效应略大于短期。 Granger检验结果表明，农村居民收入水平、物价水平与消费水平、城镇居民收入水平与消费水平之间存在单向Granger因果关系；消费差距与收入差距、储蓄差距之间不存在Granger因果关系。进一步提出了促进城乡居民消费、缩小城乡消费差距的措施。
According to data of urban and rural residents’ per capita consumption, per capita income, consumer price index （CPI） and etc. in Hainan Province from 1985 to 2014, the main factors affecting consumption level and gap of urban and rural residents in Hainan Province were discussed.Stepwise regression was used to select main variables and eliminate the multicollinearity , and it was found that both income level and CPI affected rural residents’ consumption.Only income level affected urban residents’ consumption, which accorded with the Abso-lute Income Hypothesis.The differences between urban and rural residents in level of income and deposit had significant effects on their con-sumption gap, which accorded with the Life-Cycle Hypothesis.Error correction models were established to explore the marginal effects of cor-responding factors on consumption.The results showed that the long-term marginal effect of income level and CPI on rural residents ’ consump-tion was larger than the short-term marginal effect.On the contrary, the short-term marginal effect of income level on urban residents’ con-sumption was larger than the long-term marginal effect.The short-term marginal effect of rural-urban income gap on consumption gap was slightly larger than the long-term marginal effect, but the long-term and short-term marginal effects of deposit gap on consumption gap were small, and the long-term marginal effect was slightly larger than the short-term marginal effect.Granger causality test could not deny that in-come and CPI were not granger causality of rural residents’ consumption, also could not deny that income was not Granger causality of urban residents’ consumption; there was no Granger causality relationship among rural-urban income, deposit and consumption.At last some sug-gestions on how to promote urban and rural residents’ consumption level and narrow the gap between urban and rural consumption were put forward.
出处
《安徽农业科学》
CAS
2016年第26期204-209,212,共7页
Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences
基金
海南省自然科学基金资助项目(20151007)
海南省自然科学基金资助项目(20161010)
