摘要
为科学合理地评价铁路危险货物专用线安全状况,选取了设备设施、安全设施、安全管理和人员管理4个评价指标,以北京铁路局内的10条专用线为例,将其分为样本集和验证集,根据所对应的安全检验报告对指标进行量化,建立基于广义线性模型的专用线风险等级概率分布回归模型,得到专用线风险等级概率分布情况,并以发生概率最大的作为最终风险评定等级。如此依概率评价专用线风险情况,更能体现风险事件的随机性。
To evaluate the safety condition of railway dangerous private lines scientifically,4 factors has been selected as indicators： equipment facilities,safety facilities,safety management,and human resource management. The 10 private lines in Beijing railway station are taken as an example,divided into sample set and validation set. The indicators are quantized according to their corresponding safety inspection report. The regression model of risk level probability distribution of private lines is then established based on generalized linear models. The risk level probability distribution of private lines is obtained successfully based on this method,and the final risk level is evaluated by the maximum possibility of case occurrence. Consequently,the uncertainty of risk events can be illustrated better by the risk level of private lines.
出处
《世界科技研究与发展》
CSCD
2016年第5期1072-1075,共4页
World Sci-Tech R&D
基金
国家自然科学基金(61273242
61403317)
中国铁路总公司科技研究计划(2015X008-B)
四川省科技创新苗子工程项目(2015044)资助
关键词
专用线
风险评价
广义线性模型
危险货物
private lines
risk evaluation
generalized linear models
dangerous goods
