摘要
TPP运行给亚太地区带来重大影响,本文通过GTAP模型模拟TPP运行后建立中日韩FTA对我国宏观经济和产业部门产生的经济影响。得出以下结论:TPP运行后,我国宏观经济和不同产业部门受到了负面影响,我国宏观经济指标和产业部门指标出现全面负增长现象,但机电产品等具有比较优势的产业受TPP影响较小。建立中日韩FTA可以使大多数宏观经济和产业部门指标得到改善,增速由负转为正,并且促进优势产业以更快的增速增长。因此,我国应当积极主动推进中日韩FTA的建立,加快企业自主创新,推动产业结构全面升级,同时,推进FTAAP和RCEP等亚太地区一体化进程谈判和"一带一路"建设。
The operation of TPP has many effects. By using GTAP model, this paper simulates the impact of China-Japan-ROK FTA on macro economy and different industries of China. Simulation results reveal following conclusions： TPP has negative effects on the economy of China and less effects on the mechanical and electrical products which have a comparative advantage on the other products. China-Japan-ROK FTA will improve the indicators of the economy of China and the competitive industries in spite of the operation of TPP. So we should actively promote the negotiation of China-Japan-ROK FTA and speed up independent innovation and industrial upgrading. Besides this, we should actively promote the negotiation of FTAAP and RECP and the construction of “One Belt and One Road” economic circle.
出处
《江苏商论》
2016年第10期31-33,48,共4页
Jiangsu Commercial Forum
