摘要
目的运用曲线拟合对2004年-2014年石家庄市无偿献血人群梅毒感染率情况进行统计分析及预测研究,以便采取措施保障血液安全。方法收集2004年-2014年无偿献血人群梅毒反应性结果,计算年度阳性率,利用SPSS17.0软件进行曲线拟合,并预测2015年梅毒阳性率。结果 2004年-2014年本市无偿献血人群梅毒感染阳性率为2.421‰,比较决定系数r^2,三次多项式拟合效果最好,方程为y=2.361-0.869x+0.207x^2-0.011x^3,r^2=0.803,P<0.05。预测2015年梅毒阳性率为2.399‰。结论本市无偿献血人群梅毒感染率呈现上升趋势,三次回归模型预测值与实际值吻合程度较好,该模型可以作为预测梅毒感染率的预测预警模型,为采取措施降低献血人群的梅毒感染率提供理论依据。
Objective The syphilis infection rate of voluntary blood donors in Shijiazhuang from 2004 to 2014 was statistical analyzed and predictively researched with curve fitting,in order to take measures to ensure the blood safety.Methods The syphilis positive results of voluntary blood donors from 2004 to 2014 were collected,and the annual positive rate was calculated.Curve fitting was carried on with SPSS17.0 software and the positive rate of syphilis was predicted in 2015.Results The positive rate of syphilis of voluntary blood donors in Shijiazhuang from 2004 to 2014 was 2.421‰,with the compative coefficients（r^2） for determination.The effect of three polynomial fitting was the best.The equation was y=2.361-0.869x＋0.207x^2-0.011x^3,r^2=0.803,P〈0.05.The predicted positive rate of syphilis was 2.399‰ in 2015.Conclusion The positive rate of syphilis in Shijiazhuang showed an increasing trend.The predicted value of three regression model has good agreement with the actual values.The model can be used as an warning model to predict the infection rate of syphilis,so as to provide theoretical basis for taking measures to reduce the infection rate of syphilis among blood donors.
出处
《中国卫生检验杂志》
CAS
2016年第16期2381-2382,2404,共3页
Chinese Journal of Health Laboratory Technology
关键词
梅毒
无偿献血者
曲线拟合
预测
Syphilis
Voluntary blood donor
Curve fitting
Prediction
