摘要
目的统计分析邯郸市无偿献血者梅毒检测阳性率的变化并预测其发展趋势,以便采取措施保障采供血安全。方法用ELISA方法检测邯郸市2002-2013年672 866名献血者抗-TP,统计检测结果并录入SPSS 17.0进行曲线拟合,选取拟合效果最好的曲线方程对梅毒阳性率变化趋势进行预测。结果 2002-2013年邯郸市无偿献血者梅毒检测总阳性率为2.46‰,年份阳性率拟合效果最好,且R2最高的曲线为三次多项式函数,R2=0.916,P<0.001,拟合方程为Y=1.105+0.304X-0.001X3。预测邯郸市2014年无偿献血人群梅毒阳性率为2.18‰,95%置信区间上限为2.94‰,下限为1.42‰。结论对无偿献血人群梅毒阳性率的回顾性统计分析能够得到科学的趋势预测结果,对献血者招募、预测血液报废率、保障血液安全,以及开展相应的疾病预防工作均具有积极的指导意义。
Objective Statistical analysis of Handan city unpaid donors syphilis detection rate of positive changes and predict their development trend,in order to take measures to ensure the safety of blood collection and supply. Methods With ELISA method to detect 672866 blood donors from 2002 to 2013 in Handan anti-TP,and entry SPSS17. 0 statistical test result for curve fitting,selecting the best fitting effect curve equation,the positive rate of syphilis to predict the change trend. Results Total positive rate was 2. 46 ‰ of unpaid donors syphilis detection of Handan city from 2002 to 2013,yearly positive rate were the best fitting effect,and the curve of the highest R^2 as cubic polynomial function,R^2= 0. 916,P〈0. 001,fitting equation for Y =1. 105 ＋ 0. 304X0. 304X3. Predict Handan city 2014 unpaid blood donation population syphilis positive rate will be 2. 18 ‰,the upper limit of 95% confidence interval will be 2. 94 ‰,the lower limit will be 1. 42 ‰. Conclusions Retrospective statistical analysis of the unpaid blood donation population syphilis were able to get the trend of scientific forecast as a result,the recruiting blood donors,predict blood scrap rate,to ensure the safety of blood,and to carry out the corresponding disease prevention are have positive significance.
出处
《医学动物防制》
2014年第12期1344-1346,共3页
Journal of Medical Pest Control
关键词
献血者
梅毒
阳性率
曲线拟合
趋势预测
Blood donors
Syphilis
Positive rate
Curve fitting
Trend prediction
