摘要
非常规情况下空管运行风险评估是一个复杂的多因素综合评价过程,传统的评估方法难以处理其随机性和模糊性。以非常规为研究背景,从"人、机、环、管"四方面构建了非常规情况空管运行风险评估体系。在模糊层次分析法的基础上,结合云模型,建立了风险评估模型,并就迫降对模型进行仿真验算,仿真结果表明,云模型作为空管运行风险评估模型可靠科学。
The present paper intends to propose an operational risk evaluation framework for the air traffic control based on the unconventional conditions in hoping to provide a theoretical basis for the risk management of the air traffic control through the risk evaluation. The said framework can be systematically built up in terms of the following four aspects： the man,the machine,the operational surroundings,and the management,through a comprehensive analysis of the unconventional operational factors for the air traffic control by choosing the directly-oriented strongly influential risk factors. The said framework is supposed to consist of17 indexes,which can be preferably adopted to evaluate such risks under the aforementioned conditions,on which it would be possible to obtain the index weights through a fuzzy analytical hierarchy and a fuzzy complementary judgment matrix and fuzzy consistent matrix. At the same time,the cloud model we have developed is expected to obtain the standard and the comprehensive trust cloud with the help of the cloud model algorithm. In so do-ing,the paper has established a panel for collecting the comments about the indexes concerned while focusing on the forced landing.With the specific data about the forced landing,it can collect the rating data from exactly 100 experts. And,finally,we have established a simulation model for validating the method on the basis of the original risk evaluation model and the risk evaluation process to arrive at a numerical eigenvalue of the various indicators and the comprehensive trust cloud,confirming that the similarity with the kind of generalization tends to be maximal. Thus,the risk level of the so-called unconventional operation for air traffic control has been proven as the＂generalized＂one with its value being 0. 433 0. And,therefore,the result of the simulation shows that the model can perfectly evaluate the risk of the unconventional operation for the air traffic control at the value of great reliability and validity. And,in turn,the end resul
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第4期42-47,共6页
Journal of Safety and Environment
基金
国家空管科研课题(GKG201410001)
关键词
安全工程
模糊层次分析法
云模型
非常规
空管
风险评估
safety engineering
fuzzy analytical hierarchy
cloud model
unconventional condition
air traffic control
risk evaluation
