摘要
种粮大户扩大农地经营规模出于什么样的动机?是否存在盲目性?这一问题的答案不仅关系到粮食安全问题,也关乎到农村土地流转和农业适度规模经营政策等重大问题。本文基于2015年1月和8月对安徽省种粮大户的两次实地调研数据,建立heckman两阶段模型和解释结构模型(ISM),检验种粮大户扩大农地规模意愿是否存在盲目性并探寻导致规模扩张意愿的因素及其作用机制。研究发现:种粮大户扩大规模意愿强烈,且在不同农户间扩张意愿差异显著;影响其扩大规模意愿及意愿强度的浅层次因素为农户借贷能力,其中,民间借贷途径、正规金融贷款经验对扩大规模意愿的正向影响作用显著;中层次因素为家庭资源禀赋,其中家庭资本禀赋不足对农户扩大规模意愿及强度产生显著正向的影响,家庭劳动力数量对农户扩大规模意愿强度有显著负向影响;深层次因素为同行态度、家人态度、政策激励等外部环境因素,其中,同行态度、家人态度、获得荣誉称号、获得物质奖励等因素对扩大规模意愿的正向影响作用显著。研究结果表明,种粮大户规模扩展意愿存在一定的盲目性,究其原因:一是种粮大户强烈的逐利动机和较强的风险偏好,农户几乎完全褪去生计生产者的身份,家庭资源不足使得农户依赖于借贷满足扩大生产意愿,表现出对债务风险的偏好;二是粮食生产规模化进程中同行、家人的主观规范及一味求快贪大的行业政策激励导向。鉴于此,应加强现代企业管理知识培训,提升种粮大户科学管理和科学决策水平;建立粮食生产适度规模风险监测预警机制;调整政策导向、行业导向和舆论导向以抑制种粮大户的盲目扩张行为。
To explore the motive and blindness of farmer＇s intention to expand farmland scale is related to both food security and policies about agricultural land circulation and agricultural moderate scale management. Based on local survey data of large grainplanting farmers in Anhui province in January 2015 - August 2015, this paper built the Heekman two-stage model and the interpretive structural model （ISM） to explore whether there was blindness to expand farmland scale and reasons for scale expanding intention and its mechanism. The survey showed that large grain-planting farmers had a strong intention to expand farmland scale, and the difference among farming household was prominent. The surface level factors were farmers＇ borrowing ability; private lending channels, formal financial loans experience had a positive influence to scale expanding intention. The middle level factor was family resource endowment ; the shortage of family resource endowment had a positive influence, and the amount of family labour force had an obviously negative influence. The deep-rooted factors were peer attitudes, family attitude, and policy incentives; peer attitudes, family attitude, receiving honorary titles, obtaining material awards had a positive influence to the scale expanding intention. The results showed blindness does exist in farmer＇s intention to expand farmland scale. First, the large grain-planting farmers had a strong motive to pursue profits and higher risk preference. Farming households nearly gave up their role of subsistence producers. The lack of family resources caused farming households to rely on loans to expand their planting or production, especially relying on debt risk. Second, subjective norms from peers and family members as well as some policy incentives tending to pursuing the large scale and fast speed, encourage the blindness. To solve above problems, governments should strengthen improve management and decision-making levels of large grainplanting farmers, establish the risk monitoring and pre
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第8期97-104,共8页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
教育部人文社会科学规划基金项目"种粮大户风险形成
感知及管控研究"(批准号:15YJA790085)
