摘要
玉符河是济南西南部防洪安全的主要威胁,高精度洪水预报是科学调度防洪工程、降低防洪风险的基础。在分析暴雨洪水特征的基础上,识别了流域主要产汇流机制,结合地形、土壤、植被、水库/塘坝分布等下垫面信息,建立了玉符河流域分布式洪水预报模型;选用卧虎山水库2010-2013年4场典型洪水过程率定了模型参数,检验了模型精度;选择典型洪水过程,通过连续模拟结合滚动修正,预估了暴雨过程的流域初始条件,应用区域降水预报数据驱动模型预报流域洪水过程,结果表明模型在72 h预见期内具有较高精度,能够为水库防洪调度提供支撑。
Yufu River is the main threat to flood control safety in southwestern Jinan. The flood forecast with high precision is the basis of scientific flood control operation and flood prevention risk reduction. Based on the analysis of historical rainstorm and flood feature ,the paper identified the main mechanism of runoff pro- ducing and converging in flood. Combining with the underlying surface information such as river network, soil, plants, and reservoir and pond distribution, it sey up the distributed flood forecast model in Yufu River basin ;the paper choose 4 types of flood from 2010 to 2013 in Wohushan reservoir to calibrate the model pa- rameter and verificate the model accuracy. Selecting typical flood process, it predicted the initial condition of rainstorm by continuously simulation and dynamic correction, by precipitation data. The paper applied the driven model of forecast data of regional precipitation to predict flood process in the basin. Resuhs show that the model has higher precision during the period of 72 - hour flood prediction and can provide support for reservoir flood control.
出处
《水资源与水工程学报》
2016年第3期66-72,共7页
Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering
基金
中国清洁发展机制赠款项目(2014110)
济南市自主创新计划项目(201302128)
关键词
洪水预报
分布式水文模型
蓄满-超渗混合产流
玉符河流域
flood forecast
distributed hydrological model
fills - supper seepage mixed runoff
Yufu riverbasin
