摘要
为准确地预测城乡客运一体化需求,本文在结合灰色预测和马尔科夫预测理论基础上对Grey-Markov模型提出了二次修正,即利用灰色波动多项式替代GM(1,1)传统模型中的指数型曲线,采用滑动转移概率矩阵修正Markov传统链,然后通过线性加权求和的方法获取最终的预测结果。最后,利用西部某地区城乡旅客运输总量的调研数据进行实例研究,综合分析最大相对误差、平均相对误差、相对残差平方和等因素,以及对比指数平滑法、回归分析法预测误差情况,结果表明Grey-Markov二次修正模型能够更好地预测城乡客运一体化需求状况。
In order to accurately forecast integrated passenger transportation demand in the urban and rural areas, the second improved Grey Markov model is proposed combined grey forecasting with Markov forecasting theory in the paper, replacing exponential curve in traditional grey model by grey wave polynomial and improving the traditional Markov chain with sliding transition probability matrix, then the final forecasting results are achieved by linear weighted sum. Finally, it researches survey data about total passenger traffic volume in the west urban and rural areas as a case study. Results show that second improved Grey-Markov Model is able to better forecast integrated passenger transportation demand conditions after comprehensively analyzing the maximum relative error, the average relative error and the relative residual sum of squares and comparing with exponential smoothing model and regression analysis.
出处
《交通与运输》
2016年第A01期42-46,共5页
Traffic & Transportation
关键词
交通工程
城乡客运一体化
对比分析法
Grey-Markov二次修正模型
需求预测
Traffic engineering
Integrated passenger transportation in the urban and rural areas
Comparative analysis
Thesecond improved Grey-Markov model
Demand forecasting
