摘要
利用梅雨强度指数的标准值,应用其指数均方差建立了强度状态的分级标准。在验证了指数系列满足马尔可夫链性质的基础上,针对梅雨强度指数系列为一列相依随机变量的特点,采用以规范化的各阶自相关系数为权重,用加权的马尔可夫链来预测和分析未来年份的梅雨状况,并运用马尔可夫链性质得到了各梅雨状态发生的极限概率。最后以长江中下游地区46年的梅雨强度指数资料为实例,对该方法进行了具体的应用,获得了令人满意的结果。
The standard and standard deviation of plum rain intensity index are used to setup the classification standard of plum rain intensity state. Based on the verification of the Markov chain characteristics of the index series a method namely index weighted Markov chain is established regarding the standardized self-coefficients as weights based on the characteristics of the plum rain. The weighted chain is applied to predict and analyze the plum rain in the future years and the limited probability of plum rain occurrence may be obtained according to the properties of Markov chain. The validity of this proposed method is verified by the observation data of the lower reaches of Yangtze River.
出处
《水利学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2005年第8期988-993,共6页
Journal of Hydraulic Engineering
关键词
梅雨强度
指数
权马尔可夫链
预测
plum rain intensity
index
Markov chain
prediction
