摘要
[Objective] The aim was to predict the annual precipitation using the method of Superimposed Marcov Chain.[Method] Based on annual precipitation in Xiaojin station on western Sichuan Plateau during 1961-2010,the Superimposed Marcov Chain method was applied to predict annual precipitation from 2001 to 2010.The prediction based on the Superimposed Marcov Chain method was compared with the observed data.[Result] For the ten years (2001-2010),the relative error in 7 years was less than 10%,even less than 5% in 4 years,which proved that Superimposed Marcov Chain can predict annual precipitation.But this method had certain defect in prediction in the extreme dry or extreme wet years,and that needs to be improved in the following study.[Conclusion] The Superimposed Marcov Chain method had clear concept,was convenient to calculate,and provided a way to explore the improvement of precipitation prediction.
[Objective] The aim was to predict the annual precipitation using the method of Superimposed Marcov Chain.[Method] Based on annual precipitation in Xiaojin station on western Sichuan Plateau during 1961-2010,the Superimposed Marcov Chain method was applied to predict annual precipitation from 2001 to 2010.The prediction based on the Superimposed Marcov Chain method was compared with the observed data.[Result] For the ten years (2001-2010),the relative error in 7 years was less than 10%,even less than 5% in 4 years,which proved that Superimposed Marcov Chain can predict annual precipitation.But this method had certain defect in prediction in the extreme dry or extreme wet years,and that needs to be improved in the following study.[Conclusion] The Superimposed Marcov Chain method had clear concept,was convenient to calculate,and provided a way to explore the improvement of precipitation prediction.
基金
Supported by Plateau Meteorology Lab of Institute of Plateau Meteorology,CMA,Chengdu
