摘要
文章基于延迟退休可能带来就业挤出和闲暇损失的现实背景,在动态一般均衡世代交叠模型框架下通过引入异质性消费者并根据中国经济校准主要参数,在控制延迟退休对中国劳动力市场冲击影响的基础上,模拟分析了延迟退休政策对企业职工福利水平的长期影响。研究分析表明:(1)无论是采用保持现有的缴费率不变的政策方式还是保持养老金待遇不变的政策方式,延迟退休均能提高城镇企业职工的社会福利水平——第一种政策会增加社会福利3.66%,第二种政策会增加社会福利1.1%;在保持养老保险缴费率不变的情况下,从长期看,延迟退休5年会使社会福利最大化。(2)最优的退休年龄与劳动力市场状态息息相关,如果当前就业形势严峻,最优退休年龄需要相应降低。
Based on the reality background that delayed retirement age may result in employment extrusion and leisure losses, this paper incorporates heterogeneous consumers into a dynamic general equilibrium overlapping generation framework, and simulates the long--term effect of delayed retirement age policy on the welfare of enterprise employees according to main parameters of Chinese economic calibration and based on the control of the shocks of delayed retirement age to labor market in China. It comes to the conclusions as follows, firstly, no matter which policy is adopted, existing policy that maintains un- changed payment rate or the policy that maintains unchanged pension treatment, delayed retirement age can raise social welfare of urban enterprise employees; the first policy can lead to the increase in social welfare by 3.66% and the secondly policy 1.1%; in the case of keeping the pension insurance contribution rate unchanged, in the long run, delayed retirement age by five years results in the optimization of social welfare; secondly, optimal retirement age is closely related to the state of labor market, and if current employment situ- ation is grim, optimal retirement age needs to be reduced correspondingly.
出处
《财经研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第8期27-39,共13页
Journal of Finance and Economics
基金
上海财经大学研究生创新基金项目(CXJJ-2013-363)
关键词
延迟退休
社会福利
生命周期模型
delayed retirement age
social welfare
life cycle model
