摘要
从风险预警角度出发,针对涉恐人员偷渡活动的复杂性、组织严密性、偷渡不成就地"圣战"的突发性等特点,将风险预警思想和理论引入到反恐情报工作之中。基于涉恐人员偷渡活动的行为特点和先期征兆,运用德尔菲法建立系统、科学的风险指标体系和预警模型,对涉恐人员偷渡活动进行全面监控和及时预警,以期在反恐怖工作实践中,辅助决策机构制定前瞻性战略方针,为反恐专业力量开展针对性战术想定提供参考,切实增强对策预案的精度和效度,提高处置打击的准度和力度。
In the perspective of risk early warning, and according to the complicated, organized, unexpected characteristics of ＂terrorism related personnel smuggling＇ and theory of risk warning to anti - terrorism intelli sonnel smuggling＂, and the first signs of activity, ing model of terrorism related personnel smuggling ＇ activities, and illegal ＂Jihad＂, this paper introduces the notion gence work. Based on the characteristics of ＂terrorism related perthe paper sets up the scientific risk index system and early - warn- activities by means of the use of the Delphy - system for compre- hensive monitoring and timely warning in anti - terrorist strategy practice, making forward - looking decision - making mechanism for anti -terrorism expertise to carry out targeted tactics, and enhancing the precision and validity of the strategy plan to improve the accuracy and disposal efforts to combat terrorist activities.
出处
《武警学院学报》
2016年第7期17-21,共5页
Journal of the Armed Police Academy
基金
国家社科基金军事学项目"国家安全视角下涉恐人员偷渡问题研究"(15GJ004-298)成果
关键词
涉恐人员
有组织偷渡
风险预警
persons involved in terrorism
organized smuggling
risk early warning
