摘要
客户需求的复杂多变及竞争激烈的市场环境使中小制造企业面临的挑战和压力越来越大。为了抓住市场机遇,满足中长期市场需求,企业需要进行阶段性的产能调整。产能调整次数过多或过少对企业生产成本都不利。本文采用灰色GM(1,1)原始模型及其背景值改进模型,对某企业过去十年年度销售量进行模拟,从中选择平均误差率最小的模型对未来十年的销售量进行预测,并以预测结果为依据进行产能决策,以总成本最小为目标确定产能扩充次数、扩充时间及扩充数量。文章建立的需求预测和产能决策模型都有较大的理论和实际意义。
In the face of complex and changing customer needs and competitive market environment, small and medium manufacturing enterprises are under challenges and increasing pressure. In order to seize market opportunities and meet the medium and long-term market demands, companies need to conduct periodic capacity adjustments. Too many or too little times of adjustments may be negative for production costs. By using the gray GM（1,1）model and the one with improved background value, the paper simulates the annual sales of enterprises over the past decade, and chooses the model with the smallest average error rate to predict sales of the next decade. Based on the predicted results, the paper makes decisions on the capacity in order to determine the times, moments and amounts of capacity expansion under the condition of minimizing the total cost. The demand forecasting and capacity decision model proposed by the paper has great theoretical and practical significance.
出处
《科技广场》
2016年第6期87-91,共5页
Science Mosaic
基金
广东理工职业学院资助项目(编号:1530)
关键词
中小制造企业
灰色模型
背景值改进
需求预测
Small and Medium Manufacturing Enterprises
Gray GM（1
1）Model
Background Value Improvement
Demand Forecasting
