摘要
文章采取主成分分析法拟合出我国的金融稳定指数,随后采用区制转移模型测度二者间的非线性依存机制,结果发现:金融稳定对经济增长的影响的确具有显著的非线性特征,其中,在金融危机时期二者间并不存在显著的依存关系,而自经济发展步入"新常态"时期后,二者间的依存特性显著提升,并呈现出明显的协调发展态势。因此,政府和有关部门应继续坚持当前多重矛盾平衡治理的发展理念,在确保经济不失速下滑的同时维持金融体系的安全运转。
This article adopts main factor analysis method in order to get the index of our financial stability as well as regimes switching model to measure the non-linear reliable mechanism. The result shows that financial stability influences economic growth with obvious non-linear characteristics.Among them, there is not obvious reliable relation between the two in financial crisis. When economic growth steps into＂new state＂, the reliable characteristics become more obvious and shows clear coordinating development tendency. Therefore, government and other related departments should keep the complicated balancing management idea and propel the secure operation of financial system under the condition of stable economic growth.
出处
《求是学刊》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第4期45-50,共6页
Seeking Truth
基金
国家社科基金重大项目"引领经济发展新常态的市场基础
体制机制与发展方式研究"
项目编号:15ZDC&008
关键词
经济增长
金融稳定
区制转移模型
economic growth
financial stability
regimes switching model
