摘要
本文利用物质资本存量估算研究中广泛使用的永续盘存法,对我国1996~2015年282个地级及以上城市的物质资本存量进行估算。本文归纳、比较和分析了已有研究的估算方法,在此基础上,重点弥补已有研究在关键参数估计和变量选择方面的不足,获得了比较可靠的城市层面物质资本存量估算结果。本文研究发现,以1995年不变价来计算,2015年我国城市物质资本存量平均为3361.2亿元,城市物质资本总存量(所有城市物质资本存量加总)为99.2万亿元;按人均来看,2015年,我国城市人均物质资本存量为79733.8元。城市物质资本存量,无论是总量还是人均,在1996~2015年均呈现加速增长的趋势,但与此同时城市间差距呈现显著扩大趋势。进一步研究发现,物质资本存量对人均GDP增长和城市间差距扩大作用有限。按照本文的初步估算,从2000年至2015年,增加的人均GDP中仅17.5%由物质资本存量贡献,城市间差距扩大趋势的13.5%由物质资本存量贡献。这意味着,和Chow、Krugman和Young于20世纪末所断定的我国经济增长模式不一样,2000年后我国的经济增长逐渐摆脱了对物质资本高投入的依赖。本文对城市物质资本存量的估算研究为相关研究提供了强有力的数据支撑。
Based on the Perpetual Inventory Method which is widely used,this paper estimates the material capital stock of 282 cities in China from 1996 to 2015.By overcoming the problems of the relevant literatures on variable choice and parameter estimation,this paper obtains more reliable estimations.It finds that the average material capital stock of cities in China in 2015 was 336.12 billion yuan,and the total material capital stock(the sum of material capital stock of all cities)was 99.2 trillion yuan,based on the price level in 1995.In terms of per capita,the per capita material capital stock of cities in China was 79733.8 yuan in 2015.The material capital stock of cities,both total and per capita,showed an accelerated growth trend from 1996 to 2015,but at the same time,the gap across cities also showed a significant enlarging trend.The further study shows that material capital stock plays a limited role in enhancing per capita GDP and widening the gap across cities.According to the preliminary estimation of this paper,from 2000 to 2015,only 17.5%of the increased per capita GDP was contributed by material capital stock,and 13.5%of the widening gap across cities was contributed by material capital stock.This implies that different from Chow,Krugman and Young's researches,China's economic growth after 2000 gradually has shifted out of the dependence on high investment in material capital.The estimation of material capital stock of 282 cities by this paper provides robust data for further researches.
作者
张舰
秦安
Zhang Jian;Qin An(School of Economics,Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 100081,China;Business School,Rutgers University,New Jersey 07029,U.S.A.)
出处
《数量经济研究》
2022年第4期97-117,共21页
The Journal of Quantitative Economics
基金
国家社科基金重大项目“新常态下完善我国宏观调控目标体系与宏观调控机制研究”(15ZDA009)的资助
关键词
物质资本存量
永续盘存法
城市经济
Material Capital Stock
Perpetual Inventory Method
City Economy
