摘要
为了对中国玉米产业安全进行动态评价与变化趋势分析,采用基于熵权法和模糊综合评价法建立玉米产业系统安全综合评价模型,利用历史及预测数据对1999—2017年玉米系统安全度进行估算,据此对中国玉米产业系统安全状态进行总体评价。结果表明:近年来中国玉米产业安全形势不容乐观,2007—2017年中国玉米产业的安全状态波动加剧,玉米及其副产品进口量大幅增加,进口依赖性增强,国际资本对中国玉米产业股权控制加强则是影响玉米安全的主要因素。据此提出积极应对玉米产业外资进入、降低玉米进口国别依存度、努力掌握玉米贸易定价权等对策。
In order to make a dynamic assessment and trend analysis of China＇s corn industry security, based on the historical data and predicted data from 1999 to 2017, a corn industry system security evaluation modelwas constructed by using entropy weight and fuzzy evaluation method to evaluate the security status. Theresults showed that corn industry security situation was not optimistic, corn industry security conditionfluctuated from 2007 to 2017. Import of corn and its by- product was increasing substantially, importdependency was enhanced. The main factor influencing the security of corn industry was the strengthening ofinternational capital control. Thus, the corn industry should cope with foreign capital entry actively, reduce the importing country dependence and strive to control the trade pricing power.
出处
《中国农学通报》
2016年第21期199-204,共6页
Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin
基金
2013年黑龙江省农委推广项目"玉米增产新技术示范与推广"(2013-590004)
2012年黑龙江省博士后落户启动基金"黑龙江省玉米产业发展研究"(LBH-Q12159)
关键词
熵权法
玉米产业安全
模糊估算
分析
entropy weight
system security of corn industry
fuzzy evaluation
analysis
