摘要
引入灰云理论的映射方法定量推理海上交通系统风险。首先,提出风险事件成因发生的可能性及其影响程度,定量推理海上交通系统风险;其次,构建灰云模型应用流程,推理海上交通风险成因的作用效果;再次,借助云模型的代数运算和升云计算,得出海上交通系统风险;最后,结合我国某港口水域的船舶交通风险数据,推理船员、船舶和环境等3个因素作用下的海上交通系统风险。运用基于系统因素相互作用的风险二维云推理,得出港口水域船舶交通风险水平为0.3‰,且不稳定。算例应用结果表明:借助灰云模型有助于不确定描述与定常信息的量化转换,实现多因素作用下的海上交通安全风险推理。
The gray cloud model to reasoning the risks of maritime traffic system is introduced,First,proposing the possibility and influences of risks and analyzing randomness,quantitatively reasoning the risks of maritime traffic system;Second,based on the cloud model algebra calculation and cloud fusion calculation to obtain the risks of maritime traffic system;Third,combining the traffic risk data information of China＇ s coastal ports,analyzes the impacts of the crew,vessels and circumstances on marine traffic risks.Based on two dimensions of risk cloud reasoning,calculated the traffic risk level in the port waters was 0.3‰,and unstable.The illustrative examples show that,with the aid of gray cloud model,it can help the conversion between the random and incomplete information and to realize the marine traffic safety risks reasoning with multi factors.
出处
《中国航海》
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第2期87-91,共5页
Navigation of China
关键词
水路运输
水上交通安全
系统仿真
风险评估
云推理
灰云模型
waterway transportation
marine traffic safety
system simulation
risk assessment
cloud reasoning
gray cloud model
