摘要
为解决船舶应急能力脆弱性的定量评估问题,建立基于证据理论的船舶应急脆弱性评估模型。该模型包括:建立船舶应急脆弱性评估指标体系,该体系考虑指标的完备性和可量化性,为模型的计算奠定基础;选取证据理论作为模型的评估方法,最终建立具体的船舶应急脆弱性评估模型;进行应急子系统的二次评估,进一步对子系统的敏感性和暴露性进行计算,并定量评估每个指标的脆弱度。对该模型进行实例验证,结果表明:所提出的基于改进证据理论的船舶应急脆弱性评估模型具有较高的科学性和实用性,可在同类问题中加以应用。
To quantitatively evaluate the vulnerability of a water transportation system in ship emergency management is very difficult.The evidence theory into constructing of the vulnerability assessment model for ship emergency management is introduced.The index system for ship emergency vulnerability assessment is built,and the quantitativity of the indices and the completeness of the index system are checked.The Ship Emergency Vulnerability Assessment（SEVA） model is constructed based on the index system and the evidence theory.The sensitivity and exposure of each index are defined and the level of vulnerability concerning each index is calculated.The vulnerability for a ship emergency situation is evaluated with the proposed model for verification.The result indicates that the proposed model is of high accuracy and application value,and can be used in similar fields.
出处
《中国航海》
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第2期35-39,共5页
Navigation of China
基金
国家自然科学基金(51279099)
交通运输部应用基础研究项目(2013329810300)
上海市科学技术委员会基金(12ZR1412500)
上海市教委科研创新基金资助重点项目(13ZZ124)
上海市教育委员会和上海市教育发展基金会"曙光计划"基金(12SG40)
关键词
脆弱性
船舶应急
证据理论
评估体系
合成规则
vulnerability
ship emergency
evidence theory
evaluation system
combination rule
