摘要
对大城市公交线网综合评价方法进行了探讨,提出基于证据理论和突变理论对我国大城市公交线网综合评价的方法并进行研究.首先通过反复比较、探讨和征询有关专家的意见,确定大城市公交线网综合评价指标及子指标,在综合评价指标的子指标中,对专家组中不同专家的经验和偏好,用证据理论合成规则对评价指标的基本概率赋值进行合成,将不同专家的评价进行融合,获得子指标的评价值.然后通过突变理论将评价指标及子指标作为控制变量进行地面公交线网的综合评价.对北京市进行算例分析结果表明,该方法对大城市公交线网的综合评价是可行.
The paper probes into the overall evaluation of public transport network in Chinese large cities, pros forth and studies the methods concerning overall evaluation of public transport network in Chinese large cities based on the Dempster-Shafer Theory and the Catastrophe Theory. First of all, confirm the overall evaluating indicators and the base indicators of public transport network in Chinese large cities through repetitive comparison, discussion and eonsultation to relevant experts; among the base indicators in the overall evaluating indicators, composite the basic probability assignment of evaluation indicators with Dempster-Shafer Theory composition rule upon different experts＇ experiences and preferences of the expert group, and amalgamate the evaluations of different experts to further obtain the evaluation value of base indicators. Then, carrying out overall evaluation on ground public transport network by taking evaluating indicators and base indicators as control variable through Catastrophe Theory, and conduct example analysis by taking Beijing City for example to further educe that such a method is feasible for realizing the overall e- valuation on public transport network in Chinese large cities.
出处
《交通运输系统工程与信息》
EI
CSCD
2009年第5期171-174,共4页
Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology
关键词
证据理论
突变理论
公交线网
评价指标
综合评价
dempster-shafer theory
catastrophe theory
public transport network
evaluation indicator
overall evaluation
